Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 19:14:20 GMT
Now bring it back to retirement. Do you think Americans are better off in retirement than they were under the pension system? Which Americans? What pension system? When? The majority of Americans -- "middle class" -- compared to say the 1970s when auto and steel manufacturers and all sorts of other industries had pension plans. This again seems non-controversial. We all know government workers. How often do you see a government worker leave a job before the pension benefits kick in? There's a very good reason for that. |
|
|
|
Post by lcjjdnh on Feb 7, 2020 19:15:56 GMT
I think it's dependent on where a person is in the quintiles of income. And again, to his original point here -- unquestionably retirement is not as prosperous for most Americans with the pension system all but gone. That's why people who do have defined-benefit plans will stay in those jobs for as long as it takes to get that windfall. If the question is whether more people have defined-benefit pensions back then than they do now, I’d assume the answer is probably. (Not sure when public employee pension plans came into vogue—plenty of people still have those, assuming government is able to pay.) Whether that’s a good or a bad thing for economy as a whole isn’t quite as clear to me. I’m not sure I agree the “retirement system is not as prosperous for most Americans.” I’m not sure I disagree either. What percentage of people had defined-benefit pensions? What percentage of people now invest in 401K or other retirement accounts? Perhaps those who had defined benefit pensions are worse off but gains are now distributed more widely. Perhaps gains from personal investing outpace assumptions built into defined benefit modes. Perhaps people simply prefer spending money now to later. |
|
|
|
Post by doctorquant on Feb 7, 2020 19:17:39 GMT
Which Americans? What pension system? When? The majority of Americans -- "middle class" -- compared to say the 1970s when auto and steel manufacturers and all sorts of other industries had pension plans. This again seems non-controversial. We all know government workers. How often do you see a government worker leave a job before the pension benefits kick in? There's a very good reason for that. OK, around 1980 about half of all private-sector workers were covered by some sort of a defined-benefit plan. Let's assume, as you have, that it was "less efficient" for industry to offer such. Who was paying for that loss of efficiency? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 19:19:45 GMT
Shareholders and executives, whose share of the pot -- through profits and salaries -- has grown exorbitantly in the last 40 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by doctorquant on Feb 7, 2020 19:28:16 GMT
Shareholders and executives, whose share of the pot -- through profits and salaries -- has grown exorbitantly in the last 40 years. But that, so stipulated, means that business is no more efficient today than they were then (i.e, inefficiency has been shifted from here to there). If that's the case ... where's this increase in consumption coming from? |
|
|
|
Post by Da Man on Feb 7, 2020 19:38:25 GMT
Shareholders and executives, whose share of the pot -- through profits and salaries -- has grown exorbitantly in the last 40 years. But that, so stipulated, means that business is no more efficient today than they were then (i.e, inefficiency has been shifted from here to there). If that's the case ... where's this increase in consumption coming from? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 19:47:13 GMT
Shareholders and executives, whose share of the pot -- through profits and salaries -- has grown exorbitantly in the last 40 years. But that, so stipulated, means that business is no more efficient today than they were then (i.e, inefficiency has been shifted from here to there). If that's the case ... where's this increase in consumption coming from? Increased shareholder profits are the efficiency. That's where the money goes when it doesn't have to go elsewhere. That isn't a shift in inefficiency. That's optimizing efficiency. |
|
|
|
Post by doctorquant on Feb 7, 2020 21:12:14 GMT
But that, so stipulated, means that business is no more efficient today than they were then (i.e, inefficiency has been shifted from here to there). If that's the case ... where's this increase in consumption coming from? Increased shareholder profits are the efficiency. That's where the money goes when it doesn't have to go elsewhere. That isn't a shift in inefficiency. That's optimizing efficiency. Let's stipulate that shareholders enjoy greater profits now than they did then. Let's further stipulate that these profits resulted strictly from reducing the wages/compensation share of firm costs. I'm pretty sure these things aren't true -- or if they are, they're not that prominent a factor -- but I'll stipulate them anyway. It still doesn't follow automatically that then was a "more prosperous" time for "the working class" than now. Today's working class avails itself of products and services that might never have come into existence but for the investment lured in by the promise of greater profits. Today's working class participates in a consumption marketplace that's less distorted by inefficiencies in resource allocation (meaning, these days labor and other resources find more fruitful uses than they did before). I empathize with the temptation to look at how a pie was carved up then and compare it to how it's carved up today ... but that really is unlikely to get you anywhere. There are waaaaaaay too many things going on for that. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 21:16:21 GMT
Be that as it may, I don't think most Americans would say they are or will be better off in retirement than were their parents and grandparents who had employer-sponsored pensions. Which was the crux of dirtybird's initial point.
|
|
|
|
Post by doctorquant on Feb 7, 2020 21:20:48 GMT
Be that as it may, I don't think most Americans would say they are or will be better off in retirement than were their parents and grandparents who had employer-sponsored pensions. Which was the crux of dirtybird's initial point. Well, even if it's apples to apples ... i.e., it's the Americans who would have had pensions comparing their lot to their parents/grandparents who had pensions ... if they in the main don't think they are or will be better off in retirement, they're not thinking very clearly. Because on average they'll be living a better life and they'll live it longer. Even if they watch Fox News. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 21:22:12 GMT
Alright, I give. Prosperity abounds for all.
|
|
|
|
Post by doctorquant on Feb 8, 2020 0:01:34 GMT
Alright, I give. Prosperity abounds for all. Now, now ... I could easily be wrong, you know. It's just not axiomatic. |
|
|
|
Post by Dr Boom 70 on Feb 8, 2020 1:11:43 GMT
Be that as it may, I don't think most Americans would say they are or will be better off in retirement than were their parents and grandparents who had employer-sponsored pensions. Which was the crux of dirtybird's initial point. I would submit that those who toiled in the public sector for 20 or 30 years and retired on full pension and medical
benefits will say they are better off.
It's the private sector employees who are not better off because many did not plan far enough in advance for their
retirement. The pension of our elders was really a forced long term form of saving.
Also in urban areas especially in areas like the northeast retired public sector employees have left private sector employees
holding the bag. State of NJ pension plans are only 36 % funded. All that results in higher property taxes and income taxes
to cover those pension liabilities. Turns out the the tortoise in form of civil servant wins the race in the end.
|
|
|
|
Post by Dr Boom 70 on Feb 8, 2020 1:58:17 GMT
All those full pensions for teachers and clerks retiring in their early 50s take its toll. Exactly. And now the chickens are coming home to roost |
|
|
|
Post by lcjjdnh on Feb 8, 2020 2:44:43 GMT
|
|
